Calculation Methodology
How projections are calculated, what data is used, and what the results mean.
Prefer a shorter introduction? Read the plain-language overview on the public website →
1. Verified source data
ETF identity, fund documents, and Shariah-compliance attribution are verified against official provider sources. Performance and expense-ratio observations use the approved fixed-ticker data source recorded by the project, with validation and source dates retained. An ETF must have a verified annualized since-inception NAV total return before it appears in the calculator.
2. Annualized since-inception NAV total return
The NAV (net asset value) total return measures how the fund's price per share has changed over time, assuming all distributions are reinvested. The since-inception figure is the annualized return from the fund's first trading day to the last verified date. This is used as the constant projection assumption.
3. Market-price return (reference only)
The market-price return measures how the ETF's share price has changed on the exchange and may differ slightly from the NAV return due to market premiums and discounts. It is displayed for reference only and is not used in projections.
4. Monthly rate conversion
The annual return is converted to an effective monthly rate using:
Monthly rate = (1 + annual return)^(1/12) − 15. Independent month-by-month ETF calculation
Each selected ETF is projected independently, month by month, using its own verified return. The monthly balances are summed to produce the combined portfolio total. No blended or approximate combined return is used.
6. Calendar-year presentation
The calculator projects monthly, but presents results as calendar-year summaries. If the calculation starts mid-year, the first row is a partial year. If the horizon ends mid-year, the final row is also a partial year. Both are clearly labelled.
7. Initial investment timing
An optional initial lump sum is invested immediately on the calculation date and begins earning a return before the first recurring contribution.
8. Monthly contribution timing
Recurring monthly contributions are added at the end of each month, beginning at the end of the month following the calculation date. Growth is applied first; the contribution is then added. This is the end-of-month contribution convention.
9. Annual contribution increase
On each 12-month anniversary of the first monthly contribution, all monthly contributions are increased by the selected percentage. The increase applies to all ETF contributions simultaneously, preserving their proportions.
10. Distribution reinvestment
Distributions are assumed to be reinvested. The NAV total return already reflects this assumption. No separate dividend yield is added to avoid double-counting.
11. Expense ratio treatment
The published NAV total return already reflects fund expenses including the expense ratio. The expense ratio is not subtracted again, because doing so would double-count the cost and produce an inaccurately low projection.
12. Currency conversion
Projections are conceptually USD-based. A single current verified exchange rate converts contributions and projected values into the selected display currency. The same rate is used throughout the projection — future FX movements are not forecast. If the rate is stale, a warning is shown and the last verified rate is used.
13. Negative returns
If a verified ETF return is negative, it is used exactly as reported. The projection may show a declining or lower-growth result. A clear warning is shown on the ETF card and in the results. This is a valid projection, not an error.
14. Stale data
When ETF data or exchange rates cannot be verified within the expected refresh period, the last verified data is retained and clearly labelled as stale. Calculation proceeds normally with a visible stale data warning. Stale source data is visually and semantically distinct from outdated calculated results.
15. Limitations
- The projection uses a constant historical return. Actual returns vary year to year.
- Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
- Exchange rates are fixed at one verified point in time. Currency movements are not forecast.
- This is an educational tool, not a financial planning service or adviser.
- Shariah compliance is self-reported by the ETF provider. The site is not a Shariah certification authority.